The reader should assume there is some margin of error on any statistic on the probability of winning and expected return anywhere on this page. To get an understanding of how extra points affect the probability of winning, I created my Wizard Teaser Equation. To save time, rather than analyzing all 12 known types of parlay cards, I analyzed five types. Besides sample size variation, I also had to make assumptions about how point spreads were created on teaser cards. I started with 1994 because that was the year the two-point conversion rule was introduced. The analysis on this page is based on the 4450 NFL games between the 1994 to 2012 seasons.
